Hawzah News Agency- The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 27 percent of the world's seaborne crude oil trade and 20 percent of global liquefied natural gas trade passed before the war, was declared "closed" by Iranian forces on 4 March 2026, and attacks on passing vessels sharply reduced maritime traffic. Middle Eastern crude oil exports through Hormuz in October returned to about 80 percent of pre-war levels, but Qatar's liquefied natural gas exports remain less than a quarter of the pre-war average. Iranian missile attacks have knocked out about 17 percent of Qatar's export capacity, and the International Monetary Fund has predicted that the country's GDP will contract by 8.6 percent in 2026, while it had been expected to grow by 6.1 percent.
The Élysée has announced that the goal is to "secure additional volumes of diesel and oil" for the French people and to exert "indirect influence on prices." This combination shows that Paris has turned energy diplomacy into a tool for managing the domestic consequences of the crisis.
however, Macron's trip reflects Europe's structural vulnerability in the global energy system. France, as a key member of the European Union, has been forced to act independently and outside the framework of Europe's common energy policy to secure its own energy supply. This situation, as the CEO of TotalEnergies had warned, will plunge France into an "era of energy scarcity" if Hormuz remains blocked. The main contradiction here is that Paris, on one hand, emphasizes Europe's "strategic autonomy," but on the other hand, in practice has become dependent on bilateral negotiations with the Persian Gulf countries.
Overall, Macron's trip to the Persian Gulf should be seen as a test to measure the gap between Paris's strategic claims and its practical capacity. France, in conditions where Hormuz is closed, Bab el-Mandeb is insecure, and Europe's gas reserves have reached their lowest historical level, has turned to energy diplomacy. The success or failure of this trip will not only affect energy prices in France but will also determine whether Europe can act independently in future crises or will remain dependent on a fragile balance of bilateral alliances.
Source: iuvmpress
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